WattAgNet: USDA egg production forecast lowered, price forecast up

Egg supply may not recover from avian influenza outbreak as soon as earlier thought

Release Date: 2015-06-11

The USDA is lowering its forecast for egg production in both 2015 and 2016. The agency released its most recent projections in its June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, issued on June 10.

In the WASDE report, USDA noted that the estimated numbers of eggs to be produced are being lowered in response to the outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza that has heavily impacted the U.S. layer flock. The 2016 projections reflect a slower than earlier expected speed at which the U.S. flock can be rebuilt.

The agency, in its June report, forecast that in 2015, 7,994 million dozen eggs will be produced, a drop  from the estimates released in May, which called for 8,323 million dozen eggs.

U.S. egg production in 2016 in the June WASDE report called for 8,141 million dozen eggs to be produced, down from the 8,525 million dozen forecast made in the May WASDE report.

The revised estimates for 2015 and 2016 are both down from the 8,335 million dozen eggs produced in the U.S. in 2014.

Egg price estimates for 2015, 2016 raised
The lower estimates for egg production have prompted the USDA to change its estimates for egg prices for volume buyers in 2015 and 2016.

The price forecast for 2015 has been raised to $1.60 to $1.66 per dozen, up $0.30 from the May WASDE estimates.

Prices should moderate in 2016, although the price forecast has been raised from estimates released in May. The new projections call for the average price of eggs in 2016 to be $1.36 to $1.47 per dozen, an increase of 8 cents.

The average price of a dozen eggs in 2014 was $1.42, according to the USDA.